Economy

More Employed, but Same Unemployment

By Lloyd Graff

The $64 billion dollar question for the economy is, what happens to employment? What happens to unemployment is related, but the two numbers do not always shift in tandem.

We are seeing a strengthening in manufacturing now and the overtime strategy seems to be waning. Productivity stats are still impressively bullish but they are starting to level off. You can only squeeze so much juice out of the lemon. The Labor Department acknowledges that people are being hired in manufacturing and my anecdotal evidence confirms this.

New construction is still pathetically soft in most markets, but we are seeing a weird anomaly in the most devastated markets of Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Builders are starting to build houses. According to an article in last Saturday’s New York Times, the most devastated housing markets are starting to get hot. It appears that some buyers just want a new home and hungry builders with low cost lots are providing value. Buying out of foreclosure or employing a short sale is such a hassle it is pushing buyers to brand new. According to the article, individual buyers are losing out to out of state buying syndicates who are picking up large collections of foreclosures at cheap prices and paying cash. Perhaps the dreaded foreclosure overhang will prove to be similar to a mild flue season, which bodes well for employment—but not necessarily unemployment.

Juan Williams, the astute Fox and NPR commentator recently did an interesting piece on the composition of today’s long term unemployed. The stubborn unemployment is in older white, blue-collar workers. He compares this demographic slice with black factory workers laid off in the early 1980s downturn. That group was very slow to get new work, saw families dissolve and higher levels of drug abuse and births out of wedlock. According to Williams, we are seeing similar trends now from the blue-collar white male demographic.

When I talk to people in the machining world I often hear confirmation of this employment issue. Company owners do not necessarily want to retrace their steps on new hiring. They may be looking for difference skills and younger workers who are willing to start at a cheaper wage and be less insistent on health insurance. Immigrant works with a strong work ethic may look more appealing than a 50-year-old former union guy who has been out of work for nine months.

I think the recovery of 2010 will be a little different than past rebounds. Companies will be hiring, but not necessarily rehiring. Unemployment will be sticky, but millions of people will be finding jobs.

Question: Is it a mistake to lengthen the eligibility period for unemployment benefits?

A party for a new development in Las Vegas, Reserve at Coronado  Ranch (New York Times)

A party for a new development in Las Vegas, Reserve at Coronado Ranch (New York Times)

Starbucks Betrayed My Wife

By Lloyd Graff

Call it the frap flap but Starbucks is pulling the New Coke.

Evidently the Buck is feeling the pain from McDonald’s competitive and cheaper McCafé, in tampering with one of its most successful products, the beloved Frappuccino. My wife Risa was addicted to the mocha, light, double blended Grande Frappuccino with easy whip. Along with the shortbread cookie it was the break in her rigorous workday that usually goes to 8 p.m. (The shortbread replaced her former staple, the Rice Krispy Treat, after Starbucks ruined that by taking out the Trans Fats a few years back). The baristas at our local Starbucks all knew her order and started making it when they saw her approaching the store. If I came in they asked me if I was there for the Missus.

And now they’ve ruined it. According to Risa the new process using pumps is so inconsistent they’ve lost her recipe and cannot seem to recover it. From store to store the variance is enormous. I would compare this to McDonald’s using different hamburger grinds and ketchup at each store.

Fast food depends on consistency. White Castle makes the slider the same way everywhere, and Wendy’s chili is always reliable. A Frappuccino is not a Domino’s Pizza, which was so uniformly awful everywhere that it begged for a redo.

Risa is appalled. She’s furious. It is a topic of conversation daily. She feels like she’s been robbed of something dear to her without warning. She says she beat the New Coke debacle by buying cases of old Coke ahead of time. But there is no old Frappuccino to be had.

Starbucks you were stupid. Let’s see how long it takes before you realize it.

Question: If you were Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz what would you do to compete with McDonald’s?

From Blog Will Starbucks Die soon?

From Blog Will Starbucks Die soon?

Is Efficiency Sometimes Unhealthy?

By Noah Graff

For the May issue of Today’s Machining World, I interviewed Carl Hoffman, author of the new book, the Lunatic Express. The book chronicles Hoffman’s travels throughout Asia, Africa, South America and the U.S., during which he attempted to use the modes of transportation commonly used by natives, notorious for discomfort, tardiness and poor safety.

One thing Hoffman described to me is how the concept of time in Third World countries differs from that in the First World. In countries like India, the Congo and Columbia, people generally have a different expectation of what it means for things to start “on time.” People never know whether a train or bus is coming in one hour or three. Waiting for things for long periods of time, and arriving to destinations late is just an accepted way of life.

It’s mind boggling to me how anything gets done at all in places with such a low priority on punctuality. How can businesses operate if it’s unknown if workers will show up?

One would think the people of these countries would be happier if things functioned the way they do in the U.S.? It’s always so frustrating to me, knowing that precious time has slipped away that could have been used for things I care about. After all, time is a limited commodity. Once you lose it, it’s gone forever.

Yet many people I know from these places where things move so sloooooowly say they often feel more relaxed and centered when they return home to Slowville. And more and more it seems like us First Worlders in our civilized, efficient habitat are stressed out and paying top dollar for shrinks to help us chill out. We pay money to go to yoga classes and lie on the couch watching reality shows to slow ourselves down.

Is total efficiency sometimes unhealthy?

Jeepney Stop in Manila, Philippines

Is an advanced degree still a key to prosperity?

By Emily Aniakou

Not long ago completion of an advanced degree was assumed to lead to a higher wage, but this isn’t always the case today.

With jobs hard to come by in today’s economy, lately there’s been an influx of people headed back to school for the piece of paper they feel will eventually lead to that coveted high-paying job.

Unfortunately for them, some companies are bypassing the well qualified but expensive employee for less expensive, less educated workers who they can train on the job. Companies are also realizing the benefits of hiring people with real world job training over academic excellence.

In her story “Valuing Another Degree” on Yahoo.com, Jonnelle Marte uses the example of entry-level teachers with master’s degrees, often having a harder time finding a job than those with bachelor’s degrees because of the higher wages expected by teachers with master’s degrees.

For some advanced degree candidates, the cost of school doesn’t seem worth the benefits now. With the average advanced degree costing more than $50,000 to acquire, many out of work people are not interested in piling on more debt, especially with no promise of a job on the other side. In some cases a master’s degree may make sense, but not if you’re just out to delay the inevitable and difficult task we all face at some point in our lives, the job search.

Question: How important is a job candidate’s education in your decision whether or not to hire them?

To Your Good Health – Insurance

By Lloyd Graff

First of all, I consider myself an Independent fiscally conservative Republican. I voted for Reagan, Dole and George Bush (both of them). But I am disgusted with the negativity of the Republicans on health care reform. The decision to demonize the Democrats for political gain saddens me. As I read the key features of the final law, it is a lot more centrist than the “sky is falling” GOP partisans have labeled it. There is no public option, it gives help to small businesses and aids less affluent uncovered people. It eliminates the insurance blackball for a pre-existing condition, which has imprisoned so many people in jobs they do not want. This new law could unleash an entrepreneurial rush, because a lot of people will feel empowered to start a practice or a business if they know they can still obtain health insurance.

Am I worried about the unintended consequences of health care reform? Sure. Will the lefties regard this as the nose of the camel under the tent and attempt to expand it into a Canadian system? Of course. But the present system stinks. It begs for reform. The Republicans were cynical Rovians to turn their backs on the process. I fear it will backfire on them—badly.

Question: Do you think the new law will help you or hurt you, personally?

Obama’s Subsidies will Benefit Foreign Manufacturing more than Us

By Lloyd Graff

"Broc Obama" from greenupgrader.com

The cross currents of job growth, environmental protection, energy and raw material security for the United States make for a public policy jumble.

The Obama administration is showering incentives to build alternative energy facilities using wind and solar under the “green jobs” theme and some Republicans have joined in the chorus. The sad fact is that the subsidies usually benefit foreign manufacturing more than domestic. Bloomberg recently ran an informative piece talking about a $2.1 million subsidy for Suntech Manufacturing to build a poly-silicon solar panel plant in Goodyear, Arizona. It will employ 70 workers to assemble 30 megawatts of power. In China, Suntech plans to boost production 40 percent to 1,400 megawatts.

In Wuxi, China, where the Suntech plant is located, minimum wage is $141 per month, about 15 percent of the U.S. minimum wage.

The stimulus package contained $2.3 billion in tax credits for renewable energy manufacturers. Obama wants to expand it to $5 billion next year.

The unfortunate fact is that the big solar producers are making their stuff in China and Malaysia. It will be installed here by “green workers,” but the incentives will benefit big multinationals more than American manufacturing companies.

Question: Do big subsidies for alternative energy make sense?

Feeling Groovy

Productivity in manufacturing rose an unprecedented 13. 5 percent in the third quarter. It means business is rising but the number of employees isn’t. The inflation vigilantes do not accept these numbers. But I’m feeling groovy about productivity gains which will give a big chill to the dollar killers and gold hoarders. Sell your bullion unless you’re going to make soup.

**************

After discussing murder in the workplace, Tuesday, how about some good news?
Chrysler is breaking even now despite its third grade styling. Costs have been pared to the femur. Fiat’sMarchionne is a serious guy and he has brought in a young, aggressive team to turn the joint upside down. With money in the bank (taxpayer’s) and minimal cash burn, Chrysler has a fighting chance to make it when its Chef Boyardee Italian-American line hits the market in two or three years.

**************

Ford made a billion dollars last quarter and gained market share. They have 23 billion in cash. GM gained market share in the quarter. Toyota made money in the quarter after predicting a loss. Automotiveland is producing at the rate of 10.5 million units per year and making some money. At 12 million they will feel good. The emasculated supply base will need to rebuild capacity.

**************

Ninety yen to the dollar, and a 1.45 Euro will make American suppliers tasty dollops for acquirers. The Canadian dollar has risen .80 to .93 to the U.S. dollar. We are seeing Canadians in Ontario stepping up for CNC lathes here because they look like bargains with the almost 20 percent swing in the relative value of the respective currencies and because of the upswing in automotive.

Question: Are you feeling happy today?

533-fiat

Jerry Seinfeld’s 1967 (Summer of Love) Fiat 500 that he crashed in 2008

The Inflation is Coming! Really?

The Inflation is coming! The inflation is coming! The inflation is coming! It’s all over the news and the bond speculators are fanning the inflation hype like Billy Mays wannabees.

I have to ask the dumb question: What planet are they living on?

In my world, Wal-Mart and Amazon are in a price war on books with best sellers going for $10 per copy. Home prices continue to fall as properties fester on the market. U.S. unemployment figures stick around 10 percent, but smart guys like Dan DiMicco, head of Nucor, says if you include discouraged workers who don’t show up on the charts it is over 16 percent.

Commodities like oil have rebounded because Wall Streeters are playing games again, but the real demand for petroleum and natural gas is far weaker than supply. There is no more on-land capacity to store oil so 125 million barrels are now floating in slow moving tankers headed nowhere.

In the machine tool world, auction prices are still trending soft, supply is huge and distributors are discounting like crazy. I recently heard of a Nakamura CNC lathe listing at $360,000 being sold for $217,000. Prices are inconsistent but we hear that 20 percent discounts off quoted prices are common.

The classic definition of inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods or services.” Excuse me, but whether it’s golf clubs or Renoirs, prices continue to fall.

Ten year U.S. Treasuries are around 3.5 percent, which hardly portends inflation. I was astonished to see my real estate taxes on my home are going down and my dentist is dealing on cavities.

Inflation? Yes, if you are talking about balloon hoaxes in Colorado.

Question: Are you raising prices now when you bid for jobs?

walmart

Finding a Home in the Housing Crisis

By Emily Aniakou

When my husband and I announced three months ago that we had just bought a house, it raised many eyebrows. Not because we came back from West Africa only 18 months ago or because we are 28 years old and recently married, but because of the fear in the air about the economy–and central to that, the uncertainty of the housing market.

We count ourselves as lucky, being somewhat shielded from the recession by determination and chance, which resulted in my current position as managing editor for Today’s Machining World magazine, and high hopes for the future job market in my husband’s field, civil engineering.

Why did we buy a house? Besides the urge to have a place of our own, the pieces fell into place. I had a steady job with opportunity for growth at a time when others were being laid off. Interest rates had hit bottom at an unprecedented 4.75 percent. The buyers market afforded us a home that we couldn’t have bought five years ago, and the sellers were all too happy to fork over closing costs. In addition, the government was swinging an $8,000 first time home-buyers tax credit before our eyes. Emotions aside, it seemed like a sound investment.

Sitting on a wooded half-acre just 30 minutes from downtown Chicago in the well-kempt town of Munster, Indiana, we knew from the first glance at the internet listing that we had found our home at $149,900. It was 1,800 square feet and built like a fort, with radiant floor heating and a full concrete basement. The original owners, who had built the home with the locally famous architect, George Watson, moved to a nursing home after a stroke, and their daughters, now living out of state, decided to sell. The home needed work. It was a brick and cedar custom-built ranch in the Frank Lloyd Wright style, constructed in 1960. Stripped of its shag carpet, it was in need of plumbing work, updated electrical and a good coat of paint.

But the U.S. government had a solution for that problem, too. The FHA 203K loan was designed to encourage people to buy homes in need of work, and allowed us to roll $16,000 worth of repairs into the mortgage.

Yes, the extra paperwork was daunting, and yes, it was scary signing away our freedom to up and go. But pulling in that driveway after a good day’s work, seeing the grass we planted grow a little taller, and watering the burgundy mum on the front stoop, slamming the door on our forest-green mailbox with the bright red flag and hearing the trash cans scrape on the asphalt as we pull them to the garage brings satisfaction and a sense of accomplishment like nothing else. For us, it was most definitely a risk worth taking.

Question: Would you buy a house in this present market?

White-OakEmily and Andre’s House

50 Jobs in 50 Weeks

By Noah Graff

For the upcoming issue, I interviewed Daniel Seddiqui, a 27-year-old native of Northern California who recently completed his quest to work 50 different jobs in 50 states in 50 weeks. Before he started his journey Seddiqui had been unsuccessful in 40 interviews for finance related jobs (his college degree was economics) and had several jobs in various states he hadn’t found fulfilling.
For his 50-50-50 quest he tried to work a stereotypical job for each state. In Maine he was lobster fisherman, Mississippi (the state with the highest obesity rate) he was a dietician. He was a surfing instructor in Hawaii, a bartender on Bourbon Street in New Orleans during Mardi Gras, a border patrolman in Arizona and worked in the machine shop of a medical device maker in Minnesota.
Seddiqui claims that in his job search he was rejected over 5,000 times, yet 95 percent of the time the people who did hire him wanted him to stay. He is now going on a lecture circuit, writing a book and producing a documentary film sharing what he learned on his quest—the power of thinking outside of the box and being willing to step out of your comfort zone, the opportunities which do exist in America.
He shared a story about when he was working in Kansas City as a boilermaker. A dentist who had been out of work for three years saw him on the news and said, “Wow, this guy is going around showing he can do anything, showing he’s an asset to these companies. I have welding skills, why don’t I go in and apply for a job there tomorrow?” The next day the dentist showed up at the company and got hired right on the spot.

Question: Do you feel a lot of unemployed Americans could find jobs if they were more open to different occupations?


50jobs

Seddiqui Working at Medical Device Plant in Minnesota

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Maier

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